Alvarez, Pirates hang on to beat Brewers following nine-run first

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Pedro Alvarez hit two homers, including his first career grand slam, as the Pittsburgh Pirates scored nine times in the first inning and held on to edge the Milwaukee Brewers, 11-9, in the second of a four-game set at PNC Park.

Alvarez knocked in five runs, while rookie Neil Walker went 5-for-5 with an RBI and run scored for Pittsburgh, which snapped a five-game losing streak to Milwaukee, but won for only the third time in its last 11 overall. Jose Tabata added a two-run double in the win.

D.J. Carrasco (2-2) was credited with the win for throwing 2 2/3 scoreless innings of relief with five strikeouts. Pirates starter Brad Lincoln labored through 2 1/3 innings, allowing nine hits and seven runs with one strikeout. Octavio Dotel recorded his 20th save of the season with a scoreless ninth.

Jim Edmonds hit a three-run homer and Ryan Braun added a two-run shot for the Brewers, who had won six of eight coming in.

Dave Bush (4-8) was raked for 10 runs -- five earned -- on nine hits with a pair of walks and as many strikeouts over four innings. The right-hander snapped a streak of six straight starts having allowed two runs or fewer.

Pittsburgh jumped all over Bush, sending 13 hitters to the plate and putting up a nine-spot in the first. The Pirates loaded the bases on back-to-back singles and a walk with one out before Alvarez cracked a 2-2 hanging curveball into the right-field seats.

Lastings Milledge then singled, moved to second on Bush's pickoff attempt and scored when Erik Kratz's grounder couldn't be handled by third baseman Casey McGehee. Ronny Cedeno reached on another error by McGehee that put runners on first and second. After Lincoln bunted the runners up a base, Tabata brought in both with a double to right. Delwyn Young and Walker added back-to-back RBI two-baggers for a 9-0 game.

It was the first time the Pirates scored nine runs in the first inning since June 8, 1989 when they scored 10 at Philadelphia, but lost the game 15-11.

Milwaukee answered with three in the second inning on run-scoring singles from Alcides Escobar, Jonathan Lucroy and Rickie Weeks.

Alvarez clubbed a homer leading off the home second to make it 10-3, but the Brewers put four up in the third. Prince Fielder and McGehee hit consecutive one-out singles before Edmonds' launched a three-run shot to center. Escobar followed with a triple and crossed the plate on Lucroy's infield single which would signal the end of the night for Lincoln.

Carrasco came on and prevented further damage with a pair of strikeouts, then tossed a scoreless fourth and fifth.

Brendan Donnelly replaced Carrasco in the sixth and walked Weeks leading off, and Braun homered to left two batters later to cut the Milwaukee deficit to 10-9. Garrett Jones' sacrifice fly in the home half put the Bucs up by two.

Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan worked a scoreless seventh and eighth inning, respectively, bridging the gap to Dotel, who struck out the first two hitters in the ninth. The closer then served up a double to Edmonds, but fanned Escobar to end the game.

Game Notes

It was the first time the Pirates scored nine runs in the first inning at home since August 8, 1893 versus the Chicago Colts...Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen missed his second straight game with a right shoulder injury suffered on Sunday versus Houston and is listed as day-to-day...Pittsburgh manager John Russell was ejected in the top of the seventh for arguing a foul ball...Walker became the first Pirates rookie to have five hits in a game since John Wehner on July 23, 1991 against Atlanta.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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