Big step up for three-year-old filly

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/01/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an effort to solidify her position as 2009 Horse of the Year, owner Jess Jackson and trainer Steve Asmussen will enter three-year-old filly Rachel Alexandra in Saturday's $750,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.

"Hal McCormick (co-owner), my family and I, like other fans of horse racing, want to see her tested," said Jackson in announcing that 'Rachel' would run in the Woodward. "If she goes up against older male horses, we'll be better able to get a measure of her greatness."

The filly's connections are taking this rare and exciting route because 'Rachel' will not run in the Breeders' Cup World Championships in November on the synthetic track at Santa Anita Park. Jess Jackson doesn't like the all- weather surfaces, especially after Curlin failed at Santa Anita in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

In the current NTRA Thoroughbred Poll, 'Rachel' remains in first-place over champion mare Zenyatta by 24 points, 208-184. The filly has 19 first-place votes to the mare's two. While various parties are working to bring the two together in a race, so far nothing has materialized.

The move to have 'Rachel' compete against older male horses is not unprecedented. In 1972 Summer Guest became the only three-year-old filly to compete in the Woodward, which was run for the first time in 1954. Summer Guest, ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Laffit Pincay, Jr., finished second to entrymate Key to the Mint. However, she was disqualified and placed third. That was when the Woodward was contested at Belmont Park over 1 1/2 miles.

"It's great to have an opportunity to run her on the stage that is Saratoga, one I think she is deserving of," said Asmussen. "To run her in a race that Curlin was fortunate enough to win last year, we realize what a tall order it is for her. Most likely Saturday, it will take a career effort for her.

"I think she knows she's a star. I think she accepts the pressure that's put on her, and she thrives on it."

Unfortunately, the field the filly will face is not a star filled one. There are some good handicap horses, Whitney Handicap winner Bullsbay, Stephen Foster champ Macho Again and Asiatic Boy who has career earnings of more than $3 million.

In some ways there's nowhere else to go with Rachel Alexandra. She devastated the field by a record 20 1/4-lengths in the Kentucky Oaks, then became the first filly in 85 years to win the Preakness. She won by 19 1/4-lengths in the Mother Goose Stakes and posted a six-length victory in the $1.25 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park.

'Rachel' is working on an eight race winning streak, including all seven starts this year. Lifetime she has won 10 of 13 races for nearly $2.5 million.

More interesting, or puzzling, is the fact that this will be the second straight race for 'Rachel' that will not be televised on a major network. The Haskell was not picked up anywhere, other than the racing channels. If the filly has become such a popular figure, then where is the television coverage of her races?

Someone is definitely dropping the ball when it comes to broadcasting these historic thoroughbred races.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.