Edwards, Stewart title bout moves on to Phoenix

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/09/2011 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, November 13. Race: Kobalt Tools 500. Site: Phoenix International Raceway. Track: one-mile oval. Start time: 3:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 312. Miles: 312. 010 Winner: Carl Edwards. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

Remember when Tony Stewart famously said on his team radio, "Here, kitty, kitty, kitty. Come get you some of this," while chasing down Kevin Harvick for the lead during the closing laps of the 2007 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis, a race that Stewart went on to win.

Right now, Stewart might as well say, "Here, Carl, Carl," in regards to his battle with Carl Edwards for this year's Sprint Cup Series championship. Stewart is just three points behind Edwards with two races to go.

After finishing seventh at Talladega and then winning at Martinsville and Texas, Stewart has gained 21 points on Edwards in the last three races.

Will Stewart's momentum continue this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway?

"It shows what this Chase is going to be about," Stewart said. "It's the perfect storm, so to speak, going into these last two weeks. That's what you want. This is about as exciting as it gets, to have two guys that are down to three points with two weeks ago."

Stewart has four wins so far in this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup. He claimed victories in the first two playoff races -- Chicagoland and New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson is the only other driver with four Chase wins in a season, doing so in 2004, '07 and '09.

This year's fall race at Phoenix should be a very interesting one. The flat one-mile track has been repaved and reconfigured since the series' most recent visit here in February.

Teams are certainly faced with the unknown heading to Phoenix, and this race could really shake up things in the fight for the championship.

"We really think next week at Phoenix has a larger opportunity by a landslide to change the outcome of this Chase," Edwards said. "That one will be a very important race. If Tony and I run 1-2 at Homestead, there's not going to be much points change if we run like we did [last Sunday at Texas], but Phoenix has the potential to be huge."

Several drivers, including Edwards and Stewart, participated in a Goodyear tire test at Phoenix in August. Sprint Cup teams were at this track last month for a two-day test session. Stewart posted the fastest lap overall in testing. No driver has yet to experience racing conditions on the newly paved surface.

"Phoenix is really a big unknown," Edwards said. "I would say this first trip will be more of a crew chief/engineer race. You're going to have to pay attention to tire wear. The setup is going to be very important. The track is very smooth and easy to drive. I don't know that you'll be able to go there and manhandle the car and hustle it around there like you could at the old Phoenix, at least not this first time."

While Edwards and Stewart have now made the Chase a two-man battle, Harvick is a distant third in points (-33), followed by Matt Kenseth (-38) and Brad Keselowski (-49).

Jimmie Johnson's hopes of winning a record-extending sixth straight Sprint Cup championship are all but gone. Johnson is now 55 points behind Edwards. He leads all drivers with four wins at Phoenix.

"From my experience there, I was a part of that first tire test and then the open test," Johnson said. "For whatever reason, if it is the asphalt or the tire, or both, and obviously the dirty air, the wind blowing dirt and being out in the middle of the desert, it takes a long time to burn in a lane that you can adjust to."

"My two times being there, you are chasing one balance of the race car, and then finally the track rubbers up. You have to back all of that out, and then you are finally on the path that you need to be on."

Edwards won last year's fall race at Phoenix. If Edwards or any other Roush Fenway Racing driver wins Sunday's Sprint Cup race or Saturday's Nationwide event here, it will mark team owner Jack Roush's 300th NASCAR victory.

Trevor Bayne gave Roush his 299th win in last Saturday's Nationwide race at Texas.

Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Kobalt Tools 500.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

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